Suddenly...Ghouls!

[Warpstoned]

Oh dear god! We're stuck in an infinity loop!

FFS everyone is agreeing right?

I for one did not know what Vectra said, and did the math and was amused as he was
of course right. He even says it himself that 50% of a bigger number is more numerical.

Perhaps getting back to the OT for now?

 

[Vectra]

hurray!

back to OT: Ghoul horde = good.

next topic!

 

[bigbadbat]

Agreed!
Ghoul horde = good!

 

[Demian]

Alright, I believe you now Velmates !

Go Ghoul Horde FTW instead of 5-wide. And if you are worried, you can always reform to get Max attacks (this is important) and as many Ranks as possible.

 

[TobiasRathein]

Last off topic post, because I didn't have enough time to point out something everyone seems to have glossed over.

Before I do that, I never once said the math was "wrong." I said it was outlined poorly, and that the nature of the math shown was very misleading.

It is also not always a flat 50% increase in wounds, by the way. Units that hit their targets on 3s yield a much lower increase in wounds than a unit that hits on 4s. Vectra very intentionally did the math for Grave Guard without the Banner of the Barrows (or great weapons). If you include this banner (that means they hit on 3s and wound on 2s), you will find that you have increases more in the range of 25% as opposed to 50%.

If you would like me to show the math, I will.

That said... Ghouls are our best core. I think they are a little over priced (should be 8 or 9 points, not 10), but they are still better than everything else we have.

 

[Velmates]

:zombie: Oh, damn it. You are right. Rerolling after hitting on 3+ will increase your total hits for 33.333%. And rerolling after hitting on 5+ for 66.667%... Interesting, but afterwards obvious.

Thanks for correcting this...

 

[Vectra]

indeed. just not as obscenely powerful as it is for many other teams.

i would like to take this opportunity to poke a whole in a common misconception: ghouls (models with poison) do NOT benefit more from rerolling failed to hit rolls than a unit without poison does. believe me. i know the maths and it actually works out to a 50% damage increase if you hit on 4+ in either case (67% increase if you hit on 5+ and 33% if you hit on 3+). It does not matter what armor or toughness the target has.

as an example:
a horde of ghouls attack a horde of orcs (LA, shield). 40 attacks will result in 6,17 wounds caused. With VHDM it will be 9,26, an increase by 50%
a horde of GG attacks the same orcs. 30 attacks will result in (assuming you for some reason didnt buy banner of the barrows, so you hit on 4+) 10,42 wounds and with VHDM it will be 15,63, an increase with 50% too

been there done that

 

[Velmates]

indeed. just not as obscenely powerful as it is for many other teams.

i would like to take this opportunity to poke a whole in a common misconception: ghouls (models with poison) do NOT benefit more from rerolling failed to hit rolls than a unit without poison does. believe me. i know the maths and it actually works out to a 50% damage increase if you hit on 4+ in either case (67% increase if you hit on 5+ and 33% if you hit on 3+). It does not matter what armor or toughness the target has.

as an example:
a horde of ghouls attack a horde of orcs (LA, shield). 40 attacks will result in 6,17 wounds caused. With VHDM it will be 9,26, an increase by 50%
a horde of GG attacks the same orcs. 30 attacks will result in (assuming you for some reason didnt buy banner of the barrows, so you hit on 4+) 10,42 wounds and with VHDM it will be 15,63, an increase with 50% too

been there done that

Oh yeah. This discussion is going for so long, I've already started forgetting the beginning posts...

 

[TobiasRathein]

Mmmm, fair enough. It was pointed out.

 

[BloodbathMcGrath]

Okay, so I see nobody has been on this post in a month, but anyone who checks by it, maybe you could answer this.

Two questions:
On topic: Is it in agreeance that ghoul horde is greater than ranking them in 5s? Just for more attack output, even though they'll take a lot more hits?

Off topic: If I were to put-oh- 40 skeletons, compared to 20 ghouls (same points value, right?) were compared against each other with this whole VDM debate, then in this case where we are taking points cost in to consideration, who will pop out more wounds?

 

[Count Lasombra]

I field my ghouls 7 wide on the flank,horde if they in my center battleline.
I'm not a mathematician but I know that poison+re-rolls= goodness.
The benefits are most significant against toughness 5 or greater opponents.Say you are fighting a hellpit abomination..T6,you will likely only wound with your poisonous hits.Getting a second opportunity to roll a bunch of sixes can make all the difference in the world.
Instead of comparing ghouls to other units,compare them to ghouls without poison.
Re-rolls benefit the unit with poison more because 1/3 of the second set of hits will auto-wound.
ghouls(no poison)18 att vs T6 9 hits ,1 or 2 wound
rerolls 9,4-5 hits maybe 1 wound..maybe not.
Ghouls(with poison)18 att vs. T6 9 hits 3 autowounds,1 regular.
rerolls 9, 4-5 hits,1 or 2 autowound,maybe 1 regular.
In this example we see the synergy between poisonous attacks and rerolls..the second units rerolls will likely result in 2-maybe-3 wounds dealt whereas the nonpoisonous units rerolls may not even matter.
I am aware that this is circumstantial.As are most things.

 

[Velmates]

No offence, but... not again...:swear:

 

[Count Lasombra]

Just getting my 2-cents in :tongue:

 

[BloodbathMcGrath]

lol maybe I asked to open pandora's box by asking another math related question :slapface:

At any rate, I kinda want to try all of the core choices just to see what I like best. Especially if I'm gonna be running different lists and strategies.

 

[Count Lasombra]

Tactics in warhammer is like the english language,there ae more exceptions than rules.

 

[Tou84]

40 skeleton horde with spears vs 20 ghoul horde and the winners is

purely mathematical no combat resolutions calculated in

skeletons in the 13 round when they are charged

ghouls in 11 round when they are charged

40 skelton horde with hw&s vs 20 ghoul horde

result always the sekeletons by a huge margin

skeletons wins in round 7

 

[Gojira]

I think your math is off. I just ran the combat of 40 horded skellies no spears versus 20 horded ghouls 30 times. 23 times the ghouls Were the winners.

 

[Tou84]

did you remember that hw&s skeletons have the parry save that totally tip the scales to their favor... ghouls do 7.41 wounds in first round while skeleton do 5 wounds in the first round this should show the winner already as ghouls lost 25% in the first round while skeletons lose 22%

second round ghouls do 6.17 wounds and remaining 26.42 skeletons do 4.4 wounds bringing the ghoul population down 29% out of the 15 unit left, while ghouls only harmed the remaining 32.59 skeletons 19%

third round remaining ghouls 10.6 do 5.09 wounds while the skeletons are still 21.33 strong and swinging back with 3.56 wounds, and from this point forward it is total down slide for the ghouls as they lose 2 attacks per unit compared to the skeleton losing only 1 attack

 

[Elbisrever]

Ok, I've seen enough math for the next coming year

Now, a bit off-topic:

I own 15 Ghouls ( actually 12, but 3 Strigoi models) and I never used them much in games ( only if I had points left). Yes, I know, prolly big mistake
So now that I've read through this tsunami of digits in the last 4 pages, and came to the conclusion that I need more Ghouls, I saw a little secondairy ( maybe not so important) problem:

recently I realised that the Corpse Cart cannot march anymore and moves a healthy *ahum* 4" a turn. I'm afraid that by the time my infantry ( and my soon to be bought extra Ghouls) gets in to the hack&slash part of the game, the Miasma of the CC will be out of range because it is stumbling somewhere in the back.

How do you guys deal with this? Do you position your CC at the frontlines ( cuz I always let it stroll behind my infantry), do you cast VHDM at it so it stays with the rest, or does it not form any problem at all and the CC can keep up at least till turn 3 or so ( i don't play that very often).

Thanks!

*EDIT: Maybe this should have been posted in the "Dear Johnny"-thread, so if this is to off-topic, any MOD's may feel free to move this.

 

[Gojira]

Skellies will lose 9 guys the first round more or less, which means they will lose combat and even with a banner they will be using attacks right away due to unstable. Don't forget ghouls are poisoned with higher WS. It's irrelevant anyway. How often do the two meet in a straight up fight with no magic or chaff and without changing formation. One side would reform for ranks eventually.

 

[Tou84]

my mathhammer already noticed that ghouls have poisoned attacks...
and higher ws and I... and if the combats had banner musician then ghouls have to beat the skeletons by 4
in the first round if not charges calculated in the mix for not losing the combat... so in this regard there is
much higher chance that the skeletons actually do win the combat over the ghouls as winning by 3 results in +2 for
ranks +1 for banner and in tie the musician tip the scales.... mathhammering the results brings us that ghouls
win by 2.41 wounds... thus bringing their numbers down by 1 model and losing 6 attacks instead of 5... everyone
can see the result that they won't recover at all... only doing it in worse direction...

 

[Wojmir Von Carstein]

Just just wanted to add some more insight into the discussion.

Why are we computing 20 ghouls vs 40 skellies both horded? I find that such calculations are pointless because there are so many other factors involed during an actual warhammer game.

On the topic of maththammer, I understand that everyone is computing EV (Expected Value) for their units. However, I do not see any mention of VARIANCE. Just to use an example of how this works (without getting too techinical....).

Unit of grave guard with board and sword 6x5 wide fight 5 chaos knights. The average amount of wounds caused against the Chaos Knights is: EV(of wounds) = 12*0.5(1/6+(1/3*1/6)) = 1.3333333

3 Vargheists attacking the 5 knights will cause: EV(of wounds) = 12*0.5*2/3*1/3 = 1.3333333

So both units cuase the same number of wounds on average. However, due to the fact that most of the damage output of the graveguard coming from their killing blows, the VARIANCE of the amount of wounds caused by the graveguard is much higher than that of the Vargheists. This Variance needs to be accounted for in any unit assesement if we wish to obtain a true picture of the "MATHHAMMER".

 

[BloodbathMcGrath]

I sort of sparked another math debate when I asked if skeletons were better for the points, as we all know ghouls are stronger. So my question is are ghouls a strong option, even though they eat up twice as many points? Or should I run twice as many skellies to hold up front lines and get more fighty units for support? OOORRR just run both plus some zombies even just to get a nice variety

 

[Yorga]

Sorry Sweeney, but a unit of Ghouls with Mindrazor is rock hard. Less obscene than on Black Guard, but for that reason way more likely to get through against a less smart opponent, and just as decisive

One of the few times GG with sword and board would rock. 4+ armor save and a parry coupled with mindrazor str 6 attacks. Crypt Horrors, Vargheists, coven throne and mortis engine rock with Mindrazor. You use the highest leader profile for the unit. That means on ME the ghostly swarm is dishing out str 5 hits. On the coven throne it has str 7 impact hits and the vampires and spirit horde are at str 7 too!

So Mindrazor is far from useless in our army.