Skeletons With Spears Worth It?

[jonnoc]

jonnoc, I'm curious as to what units you've beaten using a horde of spear skellies.

With the new errata, they are now, clearly, a viable choice once mindrazor gets thrown on them. Time to shelve the GG and bunker up some caster vamps?

Just to clarify I do recognize that skellys wont do anything on their own they do need magic support but they arent as bad as all the posts I've seen. That battle I mentioned with the savage orcs they eventually broke with IoN and vanhels rerolls. I cant really think of everything since they are a mainstay in my army oh marauders with greatweapons are one.

Mostly Ive seen them achieve things that cannot be done if they were hw/s.

 

[jonnoc]

People who believe that you save 1 wound out of 6 because of parry save is falling into the gambler's fallacy. You are NOT guaranteed of saving 1 wound out of 6 wounds you get.

That is simply not true. Gambler's fallacy is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely.

Am I using the gambler's fallacy wrong? hehe well I just mean that alot of people believe based on the posts ive read that they are guaranteed saving one wound out of six and THAT is simply not true. Yes you can be really lucky at times saving alot of skeletons but more often than not you would have combats where the parry save didn't save any skelly.

 

[eggsPR]

Just throw in a Mortis Engine and keep those spears raised with your 6+ regen

 

[rothgar13]

There's a whopper of an opportunity cost attached to the Mortis Engine - if you field it, you can't do double TG. I know I prefer having the flying, Thunderstomping death-dealer around to trading down for a Chariot with a "meh" aura effect, a watered-down version of the Gheist scream, and slightly boosting the performance of some lousy old Skeletons.

 

[eggsPR]

There's a whopper of an opportunity cost attached to the Mortis Engine - if you field it, you can't do double TG. I know I prefer having the flying, Thunderstomping death-dealer around to trading down for a Chariot with a "meh" aura effect, a watered-down version of the Gheist scream, and slightly boosting the performance of some lousy old Skeletons.

Yeah true... now since TGs are almost-broken good, Mortis Engines may see less action.

Though the double engine list giving all foot troops 5+ regen is very "grindy" indeed and shouldn't be completely overlooked.

It all depends how the rest of the list is built around the rare choices, or vice versa.

I'm just glad that almost a year afetr the new book came out, there's still not just one build that works.

 

[Friendly Dead]

Haha, no never been to Vegas, never even been in a casino, but math interests me... maybe that's the reason why I keep away from gambling

Regarding spear or not I don't see the percentage in contemplating whether or not Skels should have spears, since they have lousy offensive capabilites and I would rather pay the double for a ghoul(who CAN actually fight).

Double pts for +1 WS and poison attacks? T4 and 5+ armour is roughly even, sou you're paying double for a unit that still cannot fight.

The reason is use spear skellies is: 40 Ghouls cost so much they have to perform. 40 skellies? Not so much.

The ghouls are unlikely to do much more damage anyway, and are less flexible because you can't just throw them away like you can with skellies

 

[Kingside_Bishop]

The reason I don't think spear skeletons are too worth it is that, in a normal 5 wide, you're only getting 5 extra attacks, an average of 2.5 hits, with 1.25 wound, or .825 unsaved versus a similar troop (.6 unsaved if they're equipped with hand weapon and shield). Against more elite choices, the numbers are even worse. But with hand weapons, you get a nice, static 6+ ward save that's useful against most units, allowing you to negate 1/6th (on average) of the wounds you don't save.

 

[The Sun King]

There's a whopper of an opportunity cost attached to the Mortis Engine - if you field it, you can't do double TG. I know I prefer having the flying, Thunderstomping death-dealer around to trading down for a Chariot with a "meh" aura effect, a watered-down version of the Gheist scream, and slightly boosting the performance of some lousy old Skeletons.

Yeah true... now since TGs are almost-broken good, Mortis Engines may see less action.

Though the double engine list giving all foot troops 5+ regen is very "grindy" indeed and shouldn't be completely overlooked.

It all depends how the rest of the list is built around the rare choices, or vice versa.

I'm just glad that almost a year afetr the new book came out, there's still not just one build that works.

I completely agree with Eggie here - +1 Rep coming your way good sir!

Haha, no never been to Vegas, never even been in a casino, but math interests me... maybe that's the reason why I keep away from gambling

Regarding spear or not I don't see the percentage in contemplating whether or not Skels should have spears, since they have lousy offensive capabilites and I would rather pay the double for a ghoul(who CAN actually fight).

Double pts for +1 WS and poison attacks? T4 and 5+ armour is roughly even, sou you're paying double for a unit that still cannot fight.

The reason is use spear skellies is: 40 Ghouls cost so much they have to perform. 40 skellies? Not so much.

The ghouls are unlikely to do much more damage anyway, and are less flexible because you can't just throw them away like you can with skellies

Dude I think you oversaw something in their statline: 2 Attacks. And don't sniff at poison attacks, that special rule win games.

 

[Chaos_Born]

It's true that the poisoned attacks can make a huge difference on ghouls. Anything monster-y has to think twice about charging a horde of these guys without support, whereas skeletons will just get crushed

 

[jonnoc]

The reason I don't think spear skeletons are too worth it is that, in a normal 5 wide, you're only getting 5 extra attacks, an average of 2.5 hits, with 1.25 wound, or .825 unsaved versus a similar troop (.6 unsaved if they're equipped with hand weapon and shield). Against more elite choices, the numbers are even worse. But with hand weapons, you get a nice, static 6+ ward save that's useful against most units, allowing you to negate 1/6th (on average) of the wounds you don't save.

if you are thinking of fielding spear skeletons that are not in horde formation then you are correct they aren't worth it. The only way I field skeletons are if they are greater than or equal to 40 and in horde formation. But thats my preference I would like my skeletons to have a good chance of standing up against other similar core or great weapon equipped enemies. 40 horde spear skeletons would do much better against empire halberdiers for example vs skellies with hw/s IMO.

 

[rothgar13]

Let's see if the numbers back you up. We'll slam 50 Halberdiers into 60 HW+Shield and 60 Spear Skeletons, see how that goes.

50 Halberdiers, Full Command (10 x 5, 330) v. 60 Skeleton Warriors, Full Command, Spears (10 x 6, 330):

Round 1:

Halberdiers charge, pass Fear test.

Halberdiers strike first. 31 attacks, hitting on 3+, wounding on 3+, allowing 6+ armor.

Math: (31)*(2/3)*(2/3)*(5/6) = 11.48 Wounds ~ 11 Wounds (49 Skeletons remain)

Skeletons strike second. 41 attacks, hitting on 4+, wounding on 4+, allowing 6+ armor.

Math: (41)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(5/6) = 8.54 Wounds ~ 9 Wounds (41 Halberdiers remain)

Empire CR: +11 (Wounds) +3 (ranks) +1 (charge) +1 (banner) = +16
VC CR: +9 (Wounds) +3 (ranks) +1 (banner) = +13

Skeletons lose by 3, crumble by 3 (46 Skeletons remain).

Round 2:

Halberdiers pass Fear test.

Halberdiers strike first. 31 attacks, hitting on 3+, wounding on 3+, allowing 6+ armor.

Math: (31)*(2/3)*(2/3)*(5/6) = 11.48 Wounds ~ 11 Wounds (35 Skeletons remain)

Skeletons strike second. 36 attacks, hitting on 4+, wounding on 4+, allowing 6+ armor.

Math: (36)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(5/6) = 7.50 Wounds ~ 8 Wounds (33 Halberdiers remain)

Empire CR: +11 (Wounds) +2 (ranks) +1 (banner) = +14
VC CR: +8 (Wounds) +3 (ranks) +1 (banner) = +12

Skeletons lose by 2, crumble by 2 (33 Skeletons remain).

Round 3:

Halberdiers pass Fear test.

Halberdiers strike first. 31 attacks, hitting on 3+, wounding on 3+, allowing 6+ armor.

Math: (31)*(2/3)*(2/3)*(5/6) = 11.48 Wounds ~ 11 Wounds (22 Skeletons remain)

Skeletons strike second. 23 attacks, hitting on 4+, wounding on 4+, allowing 6+ armor.

Math: (23)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(5/6) = 4.79 Wounds ~ 5 Wounds (28 Halberdiers remain)

Empire CR: +11 (Wounds) +2 (ranks) +1 (banner) = +14
VC CR: +5 (Wounds) +1 (ranks) +1 (banner) = +7

Skeletons lose by 7, crumble by 7 (15 Skeletons remain).

Round 4:

Halberdiers pass Fear test.

Halberdiers strike first. 29 attacks, hitting on 3+, wounding on 3+, allowing 6+ armor.

Math: (29)*(2/3)*(2/3)*(5/6) = 10.74 Wounds ~ 11 Wounds (4 Skeletons remain)

Skeletons strike second. 5 attacks, hitting on 4+, wounding on 4+, allowing 6+ armor.

Math: (5)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(5/6) = 1.04 Wounds ~ 1 Wounds (27 Halberdiers remain)

Empire CR: +11 (Wounds) +2 (ranks) +1 (banner) = +14
VC CR: +1 (Wounds) +1 (banner) = +2

Skeletons lose by 12, crumble by 4 (0 Skeletons remain).

Halberdiers win.

50 Halberdiers, Full Command (10 x 5, 330) v. 60 Skeleton Warriors, Full Command, HW+Shield (10 x 6, 330):

Round 1:

Halberdiers charge, pass Fear test.

Halberdiers strike first. 31 attacks, hitting on 3+, wounding on 3+, allowing 6+ armor, 6+ parry.

Math: (31)*(2/3)*(2/3)*(5/6)*(5/6) = 9.57 Wounds ~ 10 Wounds (50 Skeletons remain)

Skeletons strike second. 31 attacks, hitting on 4+, wounding on 4+, allowing 6+ armor.

Math: (31)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(5/6) = 6.46 ~ 6 Wounds (44 Halberdiers remain)

Empire CR: +10 (Wounds) +3 (ranks) +1 (charge) +1 (banner) = +15
VC CR: +6 (Wounds) +3 (ranks) +1 (banner) = +10

Skeletons lose by 5, crumble by 5 (45 Skeletons remain)

Round 2:

Halberdiers pass Fear test.

Halberdiers strike first. 31 attacks, hitting on 3+, wounding on 3+, allowing 6+ armor, 6+ parry.

Math: (31)*(2/3)*(2/3)*(5/6)*(5/6) = 9.57 Wounds ~ 10 Wounds (35 Skeletons remain)

Skeletons strike second. 31 attacks, hitting on 4+, wounding on 4+, allowing 6+ armor.

Math: (31)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(5/6) = 6.46 ~ 6 Wounds (38 Halberdiers remain)

Empire CR: +10 (Wounds) +3 (ranks) +1 (banner) = +14
VC CR: +6 (Wounds) +3 (ranks) +1 (banner) = +10

Skeletons lose by 4, crumble by 4 (31 Skeletons remain)

Round 3:

Halberdiers pass Fear test.

Halberdiers strike first. 31 attacks, hitting on 3+, wounding on 3+, allowing 6+ armor, 6+ parry.

Math: (31)*(2/3)*(2/3)*(5/6)*(5/6) = 9.57 Wounds ~ 10 Wounds (21 Skeletons remain)

Skeletons strike second. 22 attacks, hitting on 4+, wounding on 4+, allowing 6+ armor.

Math: (22)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(5/6) = 4.58 ~ 5 Wounds (33 Halberdiers remain)

Empire CR: +10 (Wounds) +2 (ranks) +1 (banner) = +13
VC CR: +5 (Wounds) +1 (ranks) +1 (banner) = +7

Skeletons lose by 6, crumble by 6 (15 Skeletons remain)

Round 4:

Halberdiers pass Fear test.

Halberdiers strike first. 31 attacks, hitting on 3+, wounding on 3+, allowing 6+ armor, 6+ parry.

Math: (31)*(2/3)*(2/3)*(5/6)*(5/6) = 9.57 Wounds ~ 10 Wounds (5 Skeletons remain)

Skeletons strike second. 6 attacks, hitting on 4+, wounding on 4+, allowing 6+ armor.

Math: (6)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(5/6) = 1.25 ~ 1 Wounds (32 Halberdiers remain)

Empire CR: +10 (Wounds) +2 (ranks) +1 (banner) = +13
VC CR: +1 (Wounds) +1 (banner) = +2

Skeletons lose by 11, crumble by 5 (0 Skeletons remain)

Halberdiers win.

Verdict: There's a non-negligible amount of rounding error in there, but the math does bear jonnoc out - if you field large amounts of Skeletons for the purposes of duking it out with other crappy troops, Spears out-perform HW+Shield. The issue here is that they both suck at fighting and will lose to said troops in default circumstances anyway, so you might be best served sending them in at 5-wide and trying to hang on or deliver characters to turn the tide.

 

[Kingside_Bishop]

Nice, maybe I'll have to give horde spear skellies a try at the 50+ level, god knows they look cool.

 

[Yorga]

@Rothgar

1) Will they make their fear check 5 out of 5 times?

2) Is it assumed the Skeletons don't have nice choppy vampire in their fighting rank?

3) What if Mindrazor gets cast on the skeletons?

4) Did you assume no IoN casts to replenish some of those loses?

Don't skeletons make a better anvil bunker than ghouls on a point for point basis?

 

[crafty0ne]

@Rothgar

1) Will they make their fear check 5 out of 5 times?

2) Is it assumed the Skeletons don't have nice choppy vampire in their fighting rank?

3) What if Mindrazor gets cast on the skeletons?

4) Did you assume no IoN casts to replenish some of those loses?

Don't skeletons make a better anvil bunker than ghouls on a point for point basis?

When it comes down to it, I think these are the types of questions that you need to ask when comparing the two. But really, all those questions can be boiled down into one larger question that NEEDS to be asked and answered in the list writing phase: What magic Lore will my Wizards use and how much magical support can my troops expect? The answer to this question could well decide what core choices will be best for your army. Remember, more so then any other army, Vampire Counts rely on a the synergy between our troops and our characters(although that was even more true in older editions, I'm finding it is still very much true in 8th edition).

 

[rothgar13]

1) They will if they're in the Ld bubble, and there's no reason to put them anywhere else in the board.

2) I'll see your Vampire, and raise you a Warrior Priest. Or a Celestial Hurricanum. Or a Luminark. Or all three. You don't want to get in a buffing competition with Empire. You WILL lose. The default scenario is as good as it gets for Skeletons.

3) What if the Halberdiers get hit with Wildform? Or Speed of Light? Or Flesh to Stone? Or a Battle Prayer? What if they tag the Skeletons with Soulblight? Again, the default scenario is best for VC, because trying to match Empire buff for buff is tough sledding at best.

4) See #3, and also account for the fact that a Volley Gun may have gotten to wail on those Skeletons for a couple of turns.

And Ghouls are definitely better at being an anvil than Skeletons - they actually fight back, and WS3/T4 holds up much better than WS2/T3/5+/6++ against the caliber of foe you would need help against (Ogres, Chaos Warriors, Elf elites, that sort of thing).

 

[Yorga]

2) I'll see your Vampire, and raise you a Warrior Priest. Or a Celestial Hurricanum. Or a Luminark. Or all three. You don't want to get in a buffing competition with Empire. You WILL lose.

“You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never to get involved in a land war in Asia. And only slightly less well known is this: never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!”erv:

 

[Seneschal]

The Luminark is never used in serious play and if we want to go with the the whole buff war thing again, think of the Miasma vamps that will be present as well. The WP's hatred is only for one round while the VL will be generating a substantial amount of CR every combat.

 

[The Sun King]

I completely agree with Rothgar on this, it is madness trying to figure out what unit is best when putting so varying factors to the test.

If you put a VL in there, then you're not really testing how good the Skels are but how many points you need to spend on delivering a vampire into combat.

Also why discuss Lore of Shadow like something that's unique to us or even good on our troops when it's obvious that Empire is far ahead of us in that department, they can easily field a level 4 shadow for the same points as our level 2 AND all their troops are LD 7 as base.

I think it's cute with all the Skeleton hype going around the forum these days, all just because of mindrazor. Yes they are viable in a few quirky lists, but there is no reason to overrate them.

 

[Johnny-Crass]

I have a list in the works currently that should make the horde viable. I miss challenging myself with VC so it should be fun. Going be a return to my 8th ed roots

 

[jonnoc]

Verdict: There's a non-negligible amount of rounding error in there, but the math does bear jonnoc out - if you field large amounts of Skeletons for the purposes of duking it out with other crappy troops, Spears out-perform HW+Shield. The issue here is that they both suck at fighting and will lose to said troops in default circumstances anyway, so you might be best served sending them in at 5-wide and trying to hang on or deliver characters to turn the tide.

Cool math now i do agree that skeletons are crap fighters when left to their own devices they cant really do anything worthwhile. however note that the skeletons just held up the halberds for 4 rounds of combat before dying thats basically 2 turns. Synergy is the key. You could have flanked the halberds at this time or have good spell support for the skellies. Although same could be given to the opponent and all these variables are going to give people headaches but in a real game you shouldn't really leave skeletons out there alone for 4 rounds of combat. Well unless you really want them to die and simply tie up the halberds for 2 turns.

 

[jonnoc]

And Ghouls are definitely better at being an anvil than Skeletons - they actually fight back, and WS3/T4 holds up much better than WS2/T3/5+/6++ against the caliber of foe you would need help against (Ogres, Chaos Warriors, Elf elites, that sort of thing).

I believe ghouls are more of a hammer unit however...

Lets check the math!

50 Halberdiers, Full Command (10 x 5, 330) v. 32 Ghouls, Ghast(10 x 3, 330):

Round 1:

Halberdiers charge, pass Fear test.

Simultaneous Strikes
Halberdiers 31 attacks, hitting on 4+, wounding on 4+

Math: (31)*(1/2)*(1/2) = 7.75 Wounds ~ 8 Wounds (24 Ghouls remain)

Ghouls 41 attacks, hitting on 4+, poison 6's, wounding on 4+, allowing 6+ armor.

Math:
x=(41)*(1/2)----attacks that hit
y=x*(1/3)----poison
z=x-y
((z*(1/2))+y)*(5/6) = 11.38 Wounds ~ 11 Wounds (39 Halberdiers remain)

Empire CR: +8 (Wounds) +3 (ranks) +1 (charge) +1 (banner) = +14
VC CR: +11 (Wounds) +1 (ranks) = +12

Ghouls lose by 2, crumble by 2 (22 Ghouls remain).

Round 2:

Halberdiers pass Fear test.

Simultaneous Strikes
Halberdiers 31 attacks, hitting on 4+, wounding on 4+

Math: (31)*(1/2)*(1/2) = 7.75 Wounds ~ 8 Wounds (14 Ghouls remain)

Ghouls 33 attacks, hitting on 4+, poison 6's, wounding on 4+, allowing 6+ armor.

Math:
x=(33)*(1/2)----attacks that hit
y=x*(1/3)----poison
z=x-y
((z*(1/2))+y)*(5/6) = 9.16 Wounds ~ 9 Wounds (30 Halberdiers remain)

Empire CR: +8 (Wounds) +2 (ranks) +1 (banner) = +11
VC CR: +9 (Wounds) = +9

Ghouls lose by 2, crumble by 2 (12 Ghouls remain).


Round 3:

Halberdiers pass Fear test.

Simultaneous Strikes
Halberdiers 31 attacks, hitting on 4+, wounding on 4+

Math: (31)*(1/2)*(1/2) = 7.75 Wounds ~ 8 Wounds (4 Ghouls remain)

Ghouls 23 attacks, hitting on 4+, poison 6's, wounding on 4+, allowing 6+ armor.

Math:
x=(23)*(1/2)----attacks that hit
y=x*(1/3)----poison
z=x-y
((z*(1/2))+y)*(5/6) = 6.38 Wounds ~ 6 Wounds (24 Halberdiers remain)

Empire CR: +8 (Wounds) +1 (ranks) +1 (banner) = +10
VC CR: +6 (Wounds) = +6

Ghouls lose by 4, crumble by 4 (0 Ghouls remain).

Halberds win.

The Ghouls did a spectacular amount of damage killing 3 more halberdiers than skellys however they only lasted till turn 3 while the skellies lasted 1 additional round. 1 ghoul=2 skeletons you need alot of bodies in an anvil ghouls are more suited as hammer units. Although someone is free to check my math lol

 

[The Sun King]

Following that line of thought Jonnoc and you should just be fielding Zombs. Which you should.

 

[jonnoc]

Following that line of thought Jonnoc and you should just be fielding Zombs. Which you should.

https://www.vampirecounts.net/Thread-Light-Armour-and-Shield-vs-aditional-raising

check this thread IMO zombies are the best tarpit but thats all they can do.

 

[Demian]

Well... on the Ghouls favor, if the Halberdiers are lucky enough to pass all their fear tests, then Nagash himself wanted those undead defeated.

If fear strikes them for 1 turn, they might even loose/break from combat. Hitting on 5's while Ghouls do on 3's is a HUGE difference (or it should be, my math is not that good, haha)

Just saying =)

 

[Johnny-Crass]

Problem is you did not bring an optimal unit of ghouls to party with. Also all undead units sick in math hammer. Its why we cheat and raise during grinds.